CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-01-09T15:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-09T15:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28543/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and for a few frames of STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption in the SE quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from about E60 to E15 at latitude S35. Liftoff can be seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2024-01-09T13:00Z. Opening field lines and the rise of a flux rope are seen in SDO AIA 171 and dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 around 14:00Z. Data gap in STEREO A COR2 Beacon imagery lasting from 2024-01-09T15:53Z to 2024-01-10T01:23Z so CME is not captured at all. CME partially overlaps with another filament eruption CME to the southeast.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-12T08:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-09 21:00
 - Time at C2: 2024-01-09 15:48
 - Radial speed: 674.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 41 deg
 - Eruption location: S36E26
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 608.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-12 08:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.57 hours)
Lead Time: 37.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-01-10T19:21Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement